BSC 2024 Archives - BELGRADE SECURITY CONFERENCE 2024 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/category/bsc-2024/ BSC2024 Wed, 12 Feb 2025 14:12:27 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/bsc-favico.png BSC 2024 Archives - BELGRADE SECURITY CONFERENCE 2024 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/category/bsc-2024/ 32 32 BSC Trends 2024 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/bsc-trends-2024/ Wed, 12 Feb 2025 14:12:27 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=5009 Belgrade Security Conference 2024 is behind us, leaving us with important insights and discussions on the pressing global issues of our time – issues that seem to grow more complex with each passing year. Once again, BSC 2024 brought together a diverse range of distinguished speakers who tackled these challenges head-on.   The latest edition […]

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Belgrade Security Conference 2024 is behind us, leaving us with important insights and discussions on the pressing global issues of our time – issues that seem to grow more complex with each passing year. Once again, BSC 2024 brought together a diverse range of distinguished speakers who tackled these challenges head-on.

 

The latest edition of BSC Trends follows the dynamic discussions held at the Belgrade Security Conference 2024. This publication serves as a comprehensive guide for navigating the complexities of today’s geopolitical environment.
This year’s BSC Trends offers a comprehensive analysis of key global developments, including insights into Trump’s second term and its implications for the future. It examines the challenges facing democratic regimes, ongoing conflicts around the world, and the current dynamics in the Western Balkans. Additionally, the publication features a Young Leaders’ Essay section, with the top three essays from participants in the BSC Young Leaders Program.
Download BSC Trends 2024 HERE.

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Closing Remarks by Igor Bandović, Director of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy https://belgradesecurityconference.org/closing-remarks-by-igor-bandovic-director-of-the-belgrade-centre-for-security-policy/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 19:20:36 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4976 Mr. Bandović started his closing speech by taking a moment to reflect on what was achieved over the past three days. He stressed that this was a space where challenging conversations and important dialogues were held, on important topics of great importance for security. He noted that those were not theoretical debates but discussions on […]

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Mr. Bandović started his closing speech by taking a moment to reflect on what was achieved over the past three days. He stressed that this was a space where challenging conversations and important dialogues were held, on important topics of great importance for security.

He noted that those were not theoretical debates but discussions on real and impactful issues. He shared with pride that the conference gathered more than 500 participants, bringing their energy and perspectives, making the event vibrant and impactful, adding that there were many important things heard, including both good and bad news.

 

 

He thanked all the donors and partners, and then congratulated Radmila Šekerinska on her appointment as Deputy General Secretary of NATO, which he considered important for the region. He then thanked the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy team for making the conference possible, highlighting their hard work, dedication and team spirit, as well as their commitment to excellence. Mr. Bandović then took a moment to thank the interns and volunteers for their tireless energy, and the European Western Balkans team, as well as partners that helped the conference to run smoothly.

 

 

He encapsulated his speech by saying that the conference is proof that a small but dedicated team can make miracles when backed by strong values and a single vision. He stated that organising the conference was no small task, especially in such a challenging political situation. In that context, he perceived it as an act of defiance and hope that is creating change in the Balkans.

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Keynote Speech by H.E. Emanuele Giaufret, Ambassador and Head of the Delegation of European Union to the Republic of Serbia https://belgradesecurityconference.org/keynote-speech-by-h-e-emanuele-giaufret-ambassador-and-head-of-the-delegation-of-european-union-to-the-republic-of-serbia/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 19:18:14 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4968   The Ambassador reflected on the European Union enlargement as thus far being too slow and too long, and without enough results, which led to decreasing enthusiasm for the accession process. However, he highlighted that there is a new political momentum, with a clear window of opportunity for Western Balkans states to join. Enlargement has […]

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The Ambassador reflected on the European Union enlargement as thus far being too slow and too long, and without enough results, which led to decreasing enthusiasm for the accession process. However, he highlighted that there is a new political momentum, with a clear window of opportunity for Western Balkans states to join. Enlargement has a geostrategic imperative now, and it is prioritised by the new European Commission, promising that there is a clear decision to complete the EU through the process.

The Ambassador stressed that the enlargement is in the interest of both the region and of the EU itself, noting the progress on negotiations with various candidate states. He put this in the context of the necessity to accelerate progress and deliver reforms, while embracing common values that define Europe. He touched on the topic of the green transition as well, emphasising that there is a need for Europe to become more competitive, for which it requires access to critical raw materials.

 

He described Serbia as a country that has historically been at the frontier of empires and between two worlds, but that it clearly belongs to the European family and has common destiny with it. To help push the region further towards alignment with the EU, a new tool was created and rather quickly taken from an idea to reality. This tool is the Growth Plan, which is meant to integrate the region into the single market, and to support the progress on fundamental reforms. He noted that it was also meant to support the economies of the region which are lagging behind the EU, allowing them to feel the benefits of economic integration even before accession.

He listed some of the expected moves towards further integration of the region into the EU that would bring tangible effects for citizens, such as integration into the Single European Payment Area (SEPA), green lanes to abolish long queues at the border and reducing roaming costs between the region and the EU.

He touched on the importance of the advancement of human capital and the socio-economic development of the candidate countries. Regarding the fundamentals, he stressed that there need to be reforms on the rule of law, electoral conditions and media freedom, calling on the candidates in the region to fully focus on reform and to communicate their importance with the citizens.

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A “Growth Plan” for the EU? Western Balkans and the Future of the Single Market https://belgradesecurityconference.org/a-growth-plan-for-the-eu-western-balkans-and-the-future-of-the-single-market/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 18:00:20 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4978 The final panel of the conference analysed the effects of the European Union’s Growth Plan on the accession process of the Western Balkans region. The panellists agreed that it is a good tool for economic integration, which is a key element of the process, especially as the region lags a lot behind Europe in this […]

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The final panel of the conference analysed the effects of the European Union’s Growth Plan on the accession process of the Western Balkans region. The panellists agreed that it is a good tool for economic integration, which is a key element of the process, especially as the region lags a lot behind Europe in this aspect. However, it must not be decoupled from fundamental values.

 

They noted that, while there is a renewed interest in enlargement, it is mostly based on security and defence needs. Likewise, they agreed that the amount promised to the region is not very big and not easy to access, but that nonetheless it is an important step forward. The message they agreed on is that the EU needs to give more positive signals to the region, and to show more clear support for the integration of the region in practice.

 

 

Tanja Mišćević, Minister of European Integration of Serbia, opened by explaining that there was a very short period of time to create the reform agenda, which is why the public was not included. She added that the Ministry has been preparing the legal instruments and working on reforms. Simonida Kacarska, Director of the European Policy Institute in Skopje, asked about the price tag of these reforms, which are directly connected to EU funds. The minister answered that most of the money will be loaned, meaning that the countries will be borrowing money to conduct reforms, but added that the plan is a tool by which the countries can show their credibility and commitment to the process.

 

 

Dritan Abazović, Former Prime Minister of Montenegro, expressed support for the EU Growth Plan as a good idea, after a lot of time passed without new ideas. He shared his view that the states of the region rely on the enlargement process, and that it is important to get rid of the geographical hole in the middle of the EU in this way. He stressed that the region needs to have invisible borders, which is impossible without EU support, calling on more EU support for infrastructure projects because when it is not present, other actors like China appear. He warned that the EU shouldn’t constantly change the rules of accession, and that it should provide a real opportunity for states to join in order to motivate the population. In relation to this, he added that the rule of law is an inescapable part of this process. He lamented that people in the region have lost the passion for the accession process as they don’t see direct benefits to their lives, even though they support joining the EU. He stressed the need for strong leaders ready to make politically hard decisions in the short term to achieve the historical goal of EU integration of the region.

 

 

Milica Delević, Director for Competitiveness, Governance and Political Affairs at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, agreed that the Growth Plan is an important idea, and that it is a potential game changer, accepting that the logic of conditionality drives the accession process. She expressed some scepticism about the amount as the region is lagging behind economically, hoping that the amount would grow with the help of further financial institutions, adding that it is nonetheless a good signal to the region. She also mentioned the need for political will, which is necessary to sustain the process, and the understanding of the population that the process is in their own benefit and that it is positively transformative.

 

 

Tullio Ambrosone, Chief of Staff to the EU Rapporteur on the Future of the Single Market, focused on the current approach to enlargement, explaining that economic integration will not automatically create political integration, which has to go alongside it. He noted that the process impacts both member states and candidates, suggesting establishment of a solidarity facility as a funding mechanism that could address negative effects of the accession process. He emphasised the importance of the EU being competitive in order to have strategic autonomy, and that enlargement is a part of that process, which will improve the future of the single market and the EU.

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Public Assembly Under Threat: Safeguarding Civic Engagement https://belgradesecurityconference.org/public-assembly-under-threat-safeguarding-civic-engagement/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 16:41:28 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4955   The panel reached a disheartening agreement, which is that the right to protest is being threatened around the world, especially in the region. They spoke of the further deterioration of civic rights, and the intimidation of activists which we are witnessing in the region. The situation was characterised as a crisis which threatens to […]

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The panel reached a disheartening agreement, which is that the right to protest is being threatened around the world, especially in the region. They spoke of the further deterioration of civic rights, and the intimidation of activists which we are witnessing in the region.

The situation was characterised as a crisis which threatens to lead to lead to dangerous consequences to democracy Serbia, referencing the recent protests and the repressive response to them by the government. The panel also noted the rise of sexism on the internet, and the narrowing of public space for women human rights defenders especially.

 

 

Clément Voule, Former United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Peaceful Assembly and Association, began the discussion by stressing the importance of basic political rights of free speech, association and assembly for any society. He connected any limitation of these rights to democratic backsliding and the exclusion of citizens from governance. He added that the right to protest is fundamental to democracy. He stressed that there needs to be a tolerant negotiation between law enforcement and the organisers of peaceful protests in order to prevent the use of force, and to create deescalation that would benefit both sides.

 

 

Jelena Sesar, Researcher, Amnesty International, shared the results of a major project she worked on, which give a dire picture of the region, where political rights are violated and activists are repressed. She added that recently there has been an increase of restrictive measures and harsh rhetoric by the regional governments, which are labelling protesters and calling them traitors. She highlighted that the right to protest is now seen as a privilege that can be taken away, and that protests are seen as a threat by repressive authorities, who are using more violence against them.  She also warned of the emerging threat of electronic surveillance of protesting citizens, undermining their right to privacy alongside the other threatened rights. Likewise she warns against the emerging environment of misogyny and anti-gender sentiment.

 

 

Milena Vasić, Lawyer and Programme Director, Lawyers’ Committee for Human Rights YUCOM, spoke of the introduction of new legislature that restricts the right to protest even more, and the change of the approach of the government towards protesters, which are re-qualified as anti-constitutional elements. She explained that government interprets laws in a way that contributes to the repression of citizens, and referenced a recent threat by the Serbian minister of internal affairs that violence will be used. She assessed all this as not being in line with international standards.

 

 

Sofija Todorović, Programme Director, Youth Initiative for Human Rights, shared her experience of testing the right to protest, which gave negative results. She considers this an indicator for the state of society, explaining that the Initiative’s gatherings are constantly stopped by the government. She stressed that in order to solve a problem it is necessary to first accept, it and to name it, assessing the state institutions as repressive. She expressed a fear that the state will continue to repress protesters and that the process of fighting for civic rights is an ongoing process.

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Unravelling the Setbacks and Missed Opportunities: Charting the Way Forward in Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue https://belgradesecurityconference.org/unravelling-the-setbacks-and-missed-opportunities-charting-the-way-forward-in-belgrade-pristina-dialogue/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 16:18:58 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4943   The Panel was expectedly the most tense discussion of the conference so far, including the forceful exchange of views by the panellists. Despite many disagreements, the point of agreement was that the dialogue is not working. However, the panellists had different explanations on why the dialogue is failing. The panellists also agreed that the […]

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The Panel was expectedly the most tense discussion of the conference so far, including the forceful exchange of views by the panellists. Despite many disagreements, the point of agreement was that the dialogue is not working. However, the panellists had different explanations on why the dialogue is failing.

The panellists also agreed that the EU mediation was ineffective and that the EU has limited leverage, with the Ohrid agreement coming up short. The panellists agreed that tolerance has to be the basis for the dialogue, but that the incumbent political leaders have low chances of achieving this objective.

 

 

Surroi, writer, politician and civil society activist, opened the discussion with his lament that the EU envoys did not help enough, and have instead created of process of constructive ambiguity. Surroi further explained that both the dialogue and the Ohrid agreement are perceived differently by two sides. While for Kosovo it is a de facto recognition, for Serbia it is a menu of options from which to choose what it wants, and for the EU it is a document that a part of Serbia’s accession conditions. Surroi stressed the need for a paradigm change, but warned that Russia does not want normality in this part of the world, making the region a line of friction between the Western and Eastern world. As a solution he suggested that the countries of the region create a shared space taking in account their differences, including a shared security space.

 

 

Isak Vorgučić, director of Radio Kim, focused on the position of Kosovo Serbs, who are caught in a crossfire between Serbia and Kosovo. There is a notion in Kosovo that the Serbs do not want to integrate, but they are adjusting to the new reality, as almost all of them have Kosovo citizenship. However, Vorgučić noted that most Serbs emigrated rather than staying and integrating, as there is a sentiment among Albanian nationalists that it is necessary to hate Serbia. Vorgučić also stressed that Kosovo’s institutions need to provide adequate services for Serbs, to make them feel secure and to treat them as equal citizens, rather than acting in an arbitrary and aggressive way. In that context, Vorgučić proposed the long-awaited creation of the Association of Serb municipalities.

 

 

Jeta Xharra, founder and director of the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) in Kosovo, started off forcefully by highlighting that the dialogue is being conducted between two equal countries, not two cities. Xharra explained that no Kosovo government can establish the Association of Serb municipalities before all the other agreements signed are implemented as well, due to public pressure. Xharra highlighted that in Kosovo there is a fear that such an Association would create another Republika Srpska, making Kosovo dysfunctional, and noted that there is the perception that Serbia wants to remove Northern Kosovo from the rest. Xharra shared her view that the EU is trying to appease Serbia even it is the most pro-Russian country in the Balkans, levelling strong accusations against Serbia. Xharra added that Serbia will not recognise Kosovo whichever party is in power, adding that Serbia needs to face the crimes of the past and to contribute to transitional justice.

 

 

Borko Stefanović, deputy president of the Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP), focused on the point that there will never be a peace agreement between the two current leaders, which are strongly nationalistic. Stefanović complained that the Serb minority in Kosovo are treated like enemies of the state, with the negative policies of the Kurti nationalist government pushing them out. Instead Stefanović suggested for the Serbs to go back into the Kosovo institutions and participate in the elections, using the rights they have. At the same time, Stefanović suggested that for a solution it is necessary for the Serb minority to be treated better by the Albanian majority. Stefanović took issue with Jeta’s criticism of Serbia, noting that such rhetoric is making it impossible for the two sides to have a dialogue, asking for more tolerance and the avoidance of false comparisons.

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The Intricacies of Domestic Cyber Threats to Independent Media and CSOs in the WB6: A U-turn Nobody Predicted https://belgradesecurityconference.org/the-intricacies-of-domestic-cyber-threats-to-independent-media-and-csos-in-the-wb6-a-u-turn-nobody-predicted/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 15:36:37 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4941   Cybersecurity is one of the most pressing challenges facing modern society. When cyberspace power is misused, the primary target often becomes democracy, particularly within civil society and the media. During a panel discussion on the state of cybersecurity in the Western Balkans and Europe, panelists agreed that numerous challenges exist that have great potential […]

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Cybersecurity is one of the most pressing challenges facing modern society. When cyberspace power is misused, the primary target often becomes democracy, particularly within civil society and the media. During a panel discussion on the state of cybersecurity in the Western Balkans and Europe, panelists agreed that numerous challenges exist that have great potential to undermine both democracy and the security of citizens.

 

 

 

Ramadan Ilazi, the head of research at the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies, points out that cyber security is becoming the backbone of the security eco-system which is why it is important to understand the broader picture. In this regard, he highlights that misinformation is an important and vulnerable aspect of cyber security in Western Balkans. Additionally, he says that connecting the West Balkans with EU regulations and the “Single Digital Market” is the next logical step. Finally, these new threats created an arena for international hybrid warfare, which uses narratives of heightened tensions and dangers to promulgate instability.

 

 

 

Ruairi Nolan, the deputy program director for Amnesty Technology, highlights the trend of more attacks happening to civil society individuals. He states that though the number of victims may not be high, “the broader chilling effect” it has within the sector is the most important effect. He continues by stating that spyware is a systemic issue, meaning the blame should not primarily be on companies, but on governments who are the main customers. He concludes by mentioning a connection between online and offline threats, especially highlighting the fact that marginalized groups are more vulnerable to online attacks.

 

 

Bojan Perkov, a Digital Policy Coordinator at the SHARE Foundation, opens by pointing out the nuance between attacks in range and type, as well as listing a few DDOS attacks against independent media which occurred in the region. He says that cyber security is not a priority for a lot of independent media and CSOs, mainly due to the lack of financial resources. With the constantly evolving nature of cyber threats, it is hard to keep up with acquiring the necessary protection. He concludes by saying he believes the key to tackling these issues is international cooperation, specifically by regulating spyware at the highest level.

 

 

Sophie in ‘t Veld, former member of the European Parliament, highlighted that problems such as abuse of power in cyberspace are not present only in the Western Balkans, but in the European Union as well. Leaders with autocratic tendencies use spyware to deal with their political opponents and to silence the media and NGOs, all while (mis)using the broad concept of “national security”. When all of that is combined, Sophie in ‘t Veld concludes, democracy and individual human rights face serious threats of diminishment.

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Beyond Ideology: Organised crime and Violent Extremism in the Western Balkans https://belgradesecurityconference.org/beyond-ideology-organised-crime-and-violent-extremism-in-the-western-balkans/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 14:29:37 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4927 The new panel, “Beyond Ideology: Organised Crime and Violent Extremism in the Western Balkans,” focused on the connection between violent extremism and organised crime in the Western Balkans. The speakers placed particular emphasis on mechanisms for preventing criminal activities and building trust between states. Adrian Shtuni, a foreign policy and security specialist, explains the importance […]

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The new panel, “Beyond Ideology: Organised Crime and Violent Extremism in the Western Balkans,” focused on the connection between violent extremism and organised crime in the Western Balkans. The speakers placed particular emphasis on mechanisms for preventing criminal activities and building trust between states.

Adrian Shtuni, a foreign policy and security specialist, explains the importance of understanding the nexus between organised crime and extremist organisation in order to find the most effective ways to respond. This phenomenon thrives in places with high social, political and economic instability. Additionally, the organised crime-extremism nexus is constantly morphing, and he stresses that researches also need to be constant. Finally, he talks about the need for cooperation and coordination between states in tackling the transnational component of these crimes. At the same time, the main problem is the lack of trust between neighbouring countries in the Balkans.

 

 

The most important actor for the fight against organised crime is the state, emphasizes Giorgio Fruscione, a research fellow at the Italian Institute for international political studies. He states that this connection is mostly made through a “marriage of convenience”, a term that describes a relationship where the two sides agree not to interfere with each other’s business. Actually, the closer this relationship is, the more dangerous these groups are. Unfortunately, their role is often underestimated, as they act as logistic hubs for attacks happening outside of the region.

 

 

Ruggero Scaturro, a Senior Analyst in the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised crime, says that while a lot of material exists both on organised crime groups and terrorist groups, not a lot has been done in order to understand the extent of resource-sharing between them. A generalized approach to this topic is wrong and we should adopt a case by case approach, differentiating these relationships based on their duration, how big the phenomenon is and what kind of crime they are actually involved in. An important resource for operating this groups are young people who are engaging in its illegal activities for financial benefit, known as “easy money”.

 

With these remarks Jovana Škorić, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Philosophy, University of Novi Sad, adds the connection between crime and extremism is evident in a large number of minors, particularly adolescents, involved in criminal activities, with hooliganism being the most prominent. Parental involvement is necessary for the creation of support networks, because “children are not the problem, they are the targets”. Having the goal of creating a safer environment for our children, we need to identify the root causes of affiliation with criminal groups, focusing on education and prevention for both minors and their parents.

 

 

At the end of the panel, the audience raised the issue of Russian influence in Serbia, which sets it apart from other countries in the region. In response to questions from both the audience and the moderator, Fatjona Mejdini, Director of the South Eastern Europe Observatory, the speakers agreed that Russia’s influence is significant and highlighted its continuous efforts to strengthen its presence in the region.

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Revisiting Human Security in Southeast Europe: The Role of Regional Cooperation https://belgradesecurityconference.org/revisiting-human-security-in-southeast-europe-the-role-of-regional-cooperation/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 13:09:30 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4894   The panel highlighted the importance of human security, agreeing that there needs to be a move away from only state perspectives of security towards a more holistic approach that prioritizes the well-being of individuals. One of the panel’s conclusions was that risk needs to be shared and managed regionally and that regional cooperation can […]

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The panel highlighted the importance of human security, agreeing that there needs to be a move away from only state perspectives of security towards a more holistic approach that prioritizes the well-being of individuals. One of the panel’s conclusions was that risk needs to be shared and managed regionally and that regional cooperation can help sustain international security.

The panelists also agreed that the states of the region need to have a larger socioeconomic focus to mitigate insecurity and that they need to invest more in human capital, health, education, and the economy. Climate change, poverty, and crime were also discussed as important issues for human security, and the panel saw regional cooperation as a great way to tackle these problems.

 

 

Umut Ergezer, SEE2030 Coordinator and Senior Economic Policy Analyst, Regional Cooperation Council, started the discussion by stressing that sustainable development is a key part of regional cooperation. He lamented that the majority of the global population feels insecure, noting that while national security can sacrifice individual lives, human security, which is becoming important for regional cooperation, is instead about the security of individual humans. Ergezer explained that there is an over-securitization of security currently, with more and more topics becoming securitized and over-simplified.

 

 

Konstantinos Androulakis, Deputy Head of Mission, Embassy of Greece in Belgrade, opened with a warning that the world was becoming more dangerous and that conflicts were multiplying, with an immense cost that was mostly paid by civilians. The moderator, Tim Judah, Journalist and author, noted that people feel quite insecure in the region. Mr. Androulakis pointed out that no one can feel safe today, especially in a region such as Southeast Europe, which is vulnerable to the effects of international conflicts. He stated that the promotion of human security requires global and regional cooperation and the increased trust of people in institutions.

 

 

Murat Ersavci, Programme Director, Economic Policy Research Policy Foundation of Turkiye, focused on the interconnected nature of the contemporary world, which gives economic and social issues primary importance. He noted that economic insecurity, youth unemployment, and pollution all pose security threats and that the RCC provides a platform for dialogue and cooperation that could assist in their resolution. Discussing the brain drain of young people, he warned that emigration is not a solution for the region but that instead, there has to be a sustainable peace based on dialogue and collaborative solutions.

 

 

Samir Huseinbašić, Head of Department, Department of Peace and Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina, mentioned the problem of floods as a good example of the importance of human security, highlighting the need for multilateral and bottom-up approaches. He urged the region to use diplomacy to reach compromise and communication, as everyone needs to work together regionally to support each other for the common security of all people. He also highlighted the importance of risk management for human security, and the need to share risk regionally

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War and Democracy: Political Development in Eastern Europe in Light of Russian Aggression https://belgradesecurityconference.org/war-and-democracy-political-development-in-eastern-europe-in-light-of-russian-aggression/ Wed, 20 Nov 2024 12:13:39 +0000 https://belgradesecurityconference.org/?p=4884   The final day of the Belgrade Security Conference commenced with a keynote address by Ambassador Erin E. McKee, Assistant Administrator for Europe and Eurasia at USAID. She stated that Europe is at critical juncture and reflected on the suffering of Ukranians who continue to endure Putin’s brutality, emphasizing that Ukraine serves as an inspiration. […]

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The final day of the Belgrade Security Conference commenced with a keynote address by Ambassador Erin E. McKee, Assistant Administrator for Europe and Eurasia at USAID. She stated that Europe is at critical juncture and reflected on the suffering of Ukranians who continue to endure Putin’s brutality, emphasizing that Ukraine serves as an inspiration.

„Putin may not be at your door, but his propaganda is already in your community and ours back home.“ Additionally, she reaffirmed that USAID remains committed to supporting Serbia in its democratic aspirations and journey toward European integration, highlighting that democracy lays the foundation for long-term prosperity, while robust democratic institutions are essential for lasting stability.

All panelists agreed on the profound interdependence between democracy and security, emphasizing that combating strong anti-democratic tendencies and external influences requires innovative and unconventional approaches.

 

 

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, National Leader of Belarus, the Head of the United Transition Cabinet and the President-elect of Belarus, addressed the audience via video message. „Peace is fragile when democracy is weak“, she warned. She highlighted that people, particularly younger generations, fail to fully grasp the value of democracy, which for them has become a buzz word. Its value is best perceived once it is lost, citing Belarus as a stark example. She declared that “dictators like Lukashenko may spread fear, but they cannot force people to love or accept them”. She thanked the media and civil society for supporting Belarusian activists and called for more mutual cooperation. „Dictators don’t stop until we stop them“, she stressed, explaining why democracy must be defended everywhere.

 

 

In response to the observation of moderator Tobias Schumacher (Professor in European Studies, NTNU Trondheim, and Senior Professorial Fellow, College of Europe, Natolin) that intense Russian interference is a common factor in the processes unfolding in Georgia and Moldova, Adrian Balutel, Chief of Staff to the President of the Republic of Moldova, highlighted techniques such as vote buy-out, control of political parties, distorting narratives, spreading propaganda, and disseminating misinformation. He noted that, given the extraordinary challenges the Eastern European countries face, sometimes extraordinary measures are necessary to defend democracy.

 

 

Giorgi Oniani, the Deputy Executive Director of Transparency International Georgia, marked Georgia as a textbook example of “captured state”. He said that the early signs of power consolidations by the rulinig party were evident from the start, but the consolidation of power was done in a particular manner – through a network of personal loyalty to the richest and most powerful man in Georgia. He highlighted the role of whistleblowers in debunking state capture, citing how they unveiled that Georgian intelligence service controls the electorate by building mass database on voter preferences and vulnerabilities and then mobilising all institutions to pressure their identified weak points to affect elections results. He stated that with the invasion of Ukraine everything accelerated, and the government began to directly express an anti-Western stance, portraying  the West as the enemy. “Ukraine has a tremendous influence on the whole region”, Oniani concluded.

 

 

Iryna Krasnoshtan, Programme Director at the International Center for Ukrainian Victory, agreed with the moderator’s statement that both conventional and unconventional means are employed by Russia, weaponizing everything that can be weaponized. “On a daily basis, people are deprived of sleep… Russia has weaponized sleep, the cold, migration…”. She expressed the need for rethinking “how we analyze progress in democratic reforms, in light of all the pressures and provocations we are targets of”. She emphasized that the European Commission and civil society organizations noted that progress has not stalled despite the war, with no setbacks observed. Even though there are corruption scandals, Ukraine is developing infrastructure for combating this reality, she claimed, especially emphasizing efforts to ensure transparency of defence procurement.

 

 

Thomas Hacker, Member of the German Bundestag, strongly affirmed that democracy is under pressure, within and outside of EU borders, emphasizing the significance of cyber warfare and the so-called war of narratives. “We need to deliver what is needed to Ukraine, what it needs for regaining their sovereignty. By not giving enough, by giving too late, we have endangered this country”, he stated.

The post War and Democracy: Political Development in Eastern Europe in Light of Russian Aggression appeared first on BELGRADE SECURITY CONFERENCE 2024.

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