The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) hosted the latest edition of the BSC Leaders Meetings, bringing together diplomats, policymakers, scholars, and civil society representatives for an in-depth discussion on the Western Balkans’ strategic direction in an era of rapid global change. Over the course of the gathering, participants examined how shifting geopolitical dynamics, democratic backsliding, and uncertain EU enlargement prospects are reshaping the region’s political landscape.

The event opened with remarks by Ambassador Kristin Melsom, Norway’s Ambassador to Serbia, and Srđan Cvijić, President of BCSP’s International Advisory Committee, who both underlined the importance of sustained dialogue at a moment when the Western Balkans faces renewed pressures. Maida Gorčević, Montenegro’s Minister of European Affairs, set the tone for the day with a keynote address that emphasised the region’s continued aspirations for deeper European integration.

Global Rivalries and Their Impact on the Western Balkans

The first session, “Through Midgard’s Mist,” turned attention to the growing complexity of global geopolitics and its implications for regional security. Speakers explored how shifting U.S. foreign policy, Russia’s evolving influence strategy, and China’s economic expansion have deepened the strategic competition playing out in the Western Balkans.

Contributions from Nedžma Džananović Miraščija (University of Sarajevo), Karsten Friis (NUPI), and Vuk Vuksanović (BCSP) highlighted the multifaceted pressures confronting the region, including hybrid threats, disinformation, and increased vulnerability to external leverage. Their interventions set the stage for a dynamic discussion moderated by Ambassador Arne Sannes Bjørnstad, Norway’s Ambassador to Croatia, who underscored the need for stronger transatlantic coordination at a time of heightened uncertainty.

Authoritarian Trends and the Shrinking Democratic Space

The conversation then shifted to domestic governance challenges in the second session, “Fenris Unbound,” which examined the rise of authoritarian tendencies and the erosion of democratic institutions across the Western Balkans. Speakers painted a concerning picture of shrinking civic space, weakened checks and balances, and increasing pressure on independent media.

Vessela Tcherneva (ECFR), Igor Bandović (BCSP), Srđan Blagovčanin (Transparency International BiH), and Ramadan Ilazi (Kosovar Centre for Security Studies) offered detailed perspectives on how these negative trends have intensified, particularly in the wake of changes to U.S. foreign aid that have reduced support for democracy-promotion efforts. Moderated by Ambassador Kristin Melsom, the discussion highlighted that, in the absence of sustained international engagement, regional strongmen increasingly feel emboldened to adopt restrictive laws and further centralise power.

The EU at a Crossroads—and the Region With It

The third session, “Peer Gynt’s Dilemma,” focused on the uncertain future of EU enlargement. Even as the Western Balkans continues to view EU membership as its primary strategic goal, political fragmentation within the EU and rising Euroscepticism are slowing progress. Speakers noted that unresolved bilateral disputes, internal divisions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and strained relations between Serbia and Kosovo continue to undermine cooperation and delay reforms.

Impulse interventions from Milica Delević (EBRD), Biljana Papović (Government of Montenegro), and Srđan Majstorović (CEP) drew attention to both the opportunities and the constraints facing the region. Moderated by Ambassador Kathrine Biering, Norway’s Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the session explored how initiatives like the Berlin Process can support regional connectivity—while acknowledging their limitations in the absence of strong political will.

Closing Reflections

The event concluded with a joint plenary by Ambassador Arne Sannes Bjørnstad, Ambassador Kristin Melsom, and Ambassador Kathrine Biering, who emphasised the need for strengthened regional cooperation, democratic resilience, and a credible European integration pathway.

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“Sweden is a strong and long-term supporter of EU enlargement. This could be the beginning of the end of the negotiations for Montenegro,” stated Jessica Rosencrantz, the Minister for EU Affairs of Sweden, at the fourth in a series of BSC Leaders Meetings held in Podgorica on 12th March 2025.

Besides the Swedish Minister for EU affairs, the panel discussion under the title “Montenegro’s European Dream: A Success Story for the Region?” featured prominent speakers, including Todor Goranović, Adviser to the Prime Minister of Montenegro for Security and Defence; Vanja Ćalović, Executive Director of MANS; and Nikola Dimitrov, President and Co-Founder of Solucija, who also served as the former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia. The discussion was moderated by Igor Bandović, Director of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy.

During his opening remarks, Igor Bandović emphasised the critical role of the Western Balkans in Europe’s security landscape. He stated, “As Europe faces growing instability and geopolitical challenges, the Western Balkans remain a key test for the continent’s security and democratic resilience.” Bandović acknowledged Montenegro’s European integration as a notable success but cautioned that ongoing political and security issues necessitate renewed commitment from both regional leaders and the European Union. He highlighted the urgent need for democratic reforms, enhanced regional cooperation, and a clear EU commitment to stability in the region. “Our role is to foster dialogue, provide expertise, and advocate for policies that ensure lasting stability in the Balkans,” he concluded, underscoring BCSP’s dedication to supporting these objectives through informed advocacy and collaboration.

Sweden’s Minister for EU Affairs, Jessica Rosencrantz, emphasised her country’s unwavering support for EU enlargement. She noted that the current security landscape has invigorated the EU accession process, stating, “Sweden is a strong and long-term supporter of EU enlargement. The current security environment has brought new momentum to the EU process, and by keeping up the pace on the necessary reform work, Montenegro is not only inspiring other candidate countries to follow, but also contributing to the security and stability on our entire continent.” Rosencrantz highlighted that this momentum could signify a pivotal moment in Montenegro’s negotiations, suggesting that it might be “the beginning of the end of the negotiations for Montenegro.” Her remarks underline Sweden’s commitment to fostering stability and cooperation within Europe through the enlargement process.

The discussion focused on several critical themes, such as opportunities and challenges Montenegro faces on its path to EU membership, remaining hurdles to conclude accession negotiations by 2028 and lessons other Western Balkan nations can learn from Montenegro’s progress.

Todor Goranović, Adviser to the Prime Minister of Montenegro for Security and Defence, highlighted Montenegro’s progress in its EU integration process, describing it as a source of encouragement for the country, but also for the Western Balkans. He pointed out that the recent closure of negotiation chapters, after years of delay, represents a positive step forward. Goranović also emphasised Montenegro’s role as an example for the region, particularly in supporting Ukraine and advancing NATO accession efforts. “We strive to be a credible partner,” he stated.

Executive Director of MANS, Vanja Ćalović, expressed concerns regarding Montenegro’s EU accession process, stating that “substantial reforms are now being sacrificed for larger geopolitical needs,” with politicians doing only the bare minimum to maintain a facade of progress, as “everyone needs a success story.” She emphasised that the discussions around the EU’s incentives have lost their effectiveness, noting that “Montenegro is only required to meet minimal conditions for EU integration,” which she believes is a consequence of the ongoing Ukrainian war. This situation has led to a decline in standards, with politicians in the Balkans aware that they can evade accountability amidst current geopolitical dynamics. Ćalović highlighted Montenegro’s significant issues with corruption and organised crime, underscoring the urgent need for EU assistance to advance necessary rule of law reforms.

Nikola Dimitrov, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia, underscored the urgent need for geopolitical progress in Europe, particularly considering the ongoing challenges related to EU enlargement. He noted that bilateral disputes often obstruct this progress, which has shifted public focus from enhancing the rule of law to constitutional amendments following the Prespa Agreement. Dimitrov emphasised the necessity of protecting the EU integration process, describing it as a significant challenge for the bloc. He pointed out that the region requires a success story, highlighting Montenegro’s potential as a candidate likely to achieve EU membership by 2028. However, he stressed that this goal must involve genuine collaboration with civil society organisations to ensure effective reforms are implemented rather than being treated as a mere formality.

Discussions also touched on whether the EU itself would be ready to welcome new members by 2028-2030. With 2025 expected to be a decisive year for EU enlargement policy, participants expressed cautious optimism about the prospects for further integration of Western Balkan countries into the EU.

Organised by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) in partnership with the Balkan Center for Constructive Policies – Solution (North Macedonia) and the Embassy of Sweden, this event brought together key figures in the discussion on Montenegro’s EU aspirations.

The BSC Leaders Meetings events, with the distinguished panel of international and domestic speakers, are planned to continue in the coming months in other capitals of the Western Balkans.

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In partnership with the Balkan Center for Constructive Policies – Solution (North Macedonia) and the Embassy of Sweden, the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) is hosting the fourth edition of the BSC Leaders Meetings event that will take place on 12 March 2025 in Podgorica, Montenegro.

The BSC Leaders Meetings present a series of half-day events organised throughout the Western Balkans. They are part of the Belgrade Security Conference (BSC) – a high-level international policy event organised by the BCSP each year in the third week of November in Belgrade.

The BSC Leaders Meetings aim to gather policy-makers and experts who will discuss major foreign and security challenges facing the region, geopolitical events and trends affecting it and to assess the future of democratic reforms, regional cooperation and the place of the Western Balkans in global politics.

Panel discussion “Montenegro’s European Dream: A Success Story for the Region?”

In December 2024, Montenegro reached a significant milestone in its European Union membership negotiations by provisionally closing three negotiation chapters during the Intergovernmental Conference in Brussels. This signaled a renewed momentum in its EU integration process. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described Montenegro’s ambition to become the EU’s 28th member by 2028 as achievable. Compared to other EU candidate countries, Montenegro’s small size and lack of major bilateral disputes with its neighbors position it as a clear frontrunner in the EU enlargement process. The aim of this high-level panel of the BSC Leaders Meetings is to take stock of the opportunities and obstacles standing between Montenegro and other Western Balkan countries’ EU membership. What are the remaining challenges Montenegro must address to be able to end the EU accession negotiations by 2028? What lessons can other Western Balkans countries take from Montenegro’s EU accession strategy? Could Montenegro’s progress catalyze renewed momentum in the EU integration of other Western Balkans nations? While 2025 promises to be a decisive year for EU enlargement, the question remains will the EU and its member states be ready to receive new members from 2028-2030?

Agenda

11:00 – 11:05 Opening remarks:

• Igor Bandović, Director of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy

11:05 – 12:05 Panel Discussion:

• Jessica Rosencrantz, Minister for EU Affairs of Sweden
• Todor Goranović, Adviser to the Prime Minister of Montenegro for Security and Defence
• Nikola Dimitrov, President and co-founder of the Balkan Center for Constructive Policies – Solucija, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia
• Vanja Ćalović, Executive Director of MANS

Moderator: Igor Bandović, Director of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy

11:45 – 12:00 Q&A

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Under the title “Albania and the Western Balkans in the EU by 2030: Tackling the Obstacles Ahead”, the third in a series of BSC Leaders Meetings events took place in Tirana, Albania on Friday, May 17, 2024.

The panel discussion hosted distinguished speakers such as Edi Rama, Prime Minister of Albania, Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer, Member of the Bertelsmann Stiftung Executive Board, Majlinda Bregu, Secretary General of the Regional Cooperation Council and Vessela Tcherneva, Deputy Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Nikola Dimitrov, the president and co-founder of the Balkan Center for Constructive Policies – Solucija and former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia, moderated the discussion.

Srđan Cvijić, the president of the International Advisory Committee of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, made opening remarks by saying that the BSC Leaders Meetings are a place to discuss major foreign and security policy issues. “This one is dedicated to the momentous shift in the EU’s approach to enlargement and the palpable goal of having some, if not all countries of our region, in the EU by 2030. Regional cooperation is the key and that’s what we are doing here today.,“ Cvijić concluded.

Andi Dobrushi, the director of Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans, joined Cvijić in welcoming the participants and attendees of the event. He was looking forward to a fruitful discussion by sharing his belief that the BSC Leaders Meetings panel debate will help evaluate opportunities and challenges Albania is facing on its trajectory towards the EU.

When asked about his predictions on Albania’s EU membership by 2030., Edi Rama said that “this continent is in front of a very difficult democratic winter.” However, “there is much more openness for the EU enlargement and we have to do our part of the work. Albania will be inside the EU as integrated part of it without being members.“ Rama concluded that we have the control of the future, not the past. “We have to see the past with the eyes of the future, not the future with the eyes of the past,“ he explained.

“Both sides missed the opportunity to move forward and this is why there is skepticism regarding the EU integration in the region,“ Daniela Schwarzer from the Bertelsmann Stiftung Executive Board said. “We need a gradual approach to the EU integration. The European growth plan is good step forward but candidate countries should go through the rule of law transformation,” she explained and stressed that the mere fact of having QMV disciplines the EU member states to deal with the matter more seriously.

Secretary General of the Regional Cooperation Council Majlinda Bregu said that “Learning by doing is going to be the name of the game when it comes to the region entering the EU Single Market.” She also added that 54% of Balkan citizens believe they will enter the EU, however, in Serbia the support to the EU integration is only 35%. “We should hurry and prepare our countries for the EU membership, instead of waiting for the EU,“ Bregu explained.

While moderating the panel discussion. Nikola Dimitrov said that a success of one would become success for all. “We desperately need good news in the region,” he explained.

Vessela Tcherneva shared her thoughts by saying that when there is talk about qualified majority voting in enlargement, it is usually an excuse not to proceed with enlargement. “Albania has a very good chance to be a front runner if it wanted to. A lot of that will depend on their ambition,“ she added.

“Alignment with CFSP will not be an option any more,” stated Tcherneva while Bregu and Schwarzer agreed, adding that it is likely there will be no funding (including from the EU Growth Plan) if candidate countries don’t comply with RoL and EU CFSP.

The panel discussion was followed by an engaging Chatham House debate “Bilateral Disputes and EU Enlargement: A Consensual Divorce“ that was built upon the conclusions of the latest BCSP and Solucija policy brief of the same title.

Watch the full video from the event HERE.

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The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) and the Balkan Center for Constructive Policies – Solution (North Macedonia) in cooperation with Open Society Foundations Western Balkans are honoured to announce that the BSC Leaders Meetings discussion will take place on 17 May 2024, from 10:00 CET, in Tirana, Albania.

The BSC Leaders Meetings present a series of half-day events organised throughout the Western Balkans. They are part of the Belgrade Security Conference (BSC) – a high-level international policy event organised by the BCSP each year in Belgrade. The BSC Leaders Meetings aim to gather policy-makers and experts who will discuss major foreign and security challenges facing the region, geopolitical events and trends affecting it, and to assess the future of democratic reforms, regional cooperation and the place of the Western Balkans in global politics.

Panel discussion “Albania and the Western Balkans in the EU by 2030: Tackling the Obstacles Ahead”

Ever since the publication of the Report of the Franco-German Working Group on the EU Institutional Reform in September 2023, the launching of the New EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans in November 2023, and more lately the Communication from the European Commission on pre-enlargement reforms and policy reviews in March 2024, it has become obvious that after an initial geopolitical impulse to accelerated enlargement caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the high speed EU integration train has left the station aiming to see the new member states join the Union as early as 2030. The Communication of the European Commission to the European Parliament and European Council has formally included all constructive proposals from the Western Balkans and European think tanks on how to render EU accession process more effective: introducing Qualified Majority Voting in all interim stages of the EU accession process, candidate countries joining the EU single market and gradual integration of the candidate countries before accession. Whereas there are many reasons for optimism, concerns remain whether the EU will achieve its institutional reforms in due time to welcome new members, and on the other hand whether the candidate countries in the Western Balkans will fulfill the criteria for EU membership before the due date.

The aim of this high-level panel of the BSC Leaders Meetings event is to take stock of the opportunities and obstacles standing between Albania and other Western Balkan countries’ EU membership by 2030.

Each BSC Leaders Meetings event includes a public panel discussion and a Chatham House debate dedicated to different foreign and security policy issues, including EU enlargement.

Agenda

10:00 – 10:15 Opening Remarks

· Dr. Srđan Cvijić, President of the International Advisory Committee of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy

· Andi Dobrushi, Director of Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans

10:15 – 11:45 Panel Discussion

· Edi Rama, Prime Minister of Albania

· Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer, Member of the Bertelsmann Stiftung Executive Board

· Majlinda Bregu, Secretary General of the Regional Cooperation Council

· Alba Çela, Executive Director and Head of the European Program at the Albanian Institute for International Studies

Moderator: Dr. Nikola Dimitrov, President and co-founder, the Balkan Center for Constructive Policies – Solucija, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia

11:45 – 12:00 Q&A

12:00 – 12:30 Coffee Break

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Under the title “Russian Aggression Against Ukraine: New Momentum for the EU Enlargement?”, the second in a series of BSC Leaders Meetings events took place in Skopje on Wednesday, May 17, 2023.

The speakers at the panel discussion were Stevo Pendarovski, President of the Republic of North Macedonia; Slavica Grkovska, Deputy Prime Minister in charge of good governance policies in the Government of the Republic of North Macedonia; Vessela Tcherneva, Deputy Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations and Goran Buldioski, Director of Programs for Open Society–Europe and Central Asia. Srdjan Cvijić, the President of the International Advisory Committee of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, moderated the discussion.

Igor Bandović, the Director of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, made opening remarks by saying that a new era has come to our region where a change in the style of governance and a change in leadership goes hand in hand. “Only this will give a new breath of fresh air and new energy to our dying and exhausted Balkans,” he stated.

The main topics of the BSC Leaders Meetings panel discussion in Skopje were Russian propaganda in the region, EU membership, the bilateral dispute between Bulgaria and North Macedonia, and many more.

While discussing the effects of Russian propaganda in the Western Balkans, the President of President of the Republic of North Macedonia Stevo Pendarovski, pointed out that it has won the hearts and minds of people in the region and that being a member of NATO helps to cope with cyber-attacks and endless propaganda.

Vessela Tcherneva described the media environment as polluted, partly due to Russian propaganda but also the consequence of narratives filled with fear and anxiety – the narratives people tend to accept in times of crisis.

Regarding relations between Bulgaria and North Macedonia, Goran Buldioski said bilateral disputes in the EU integration process are part of political reality and should be resolved as such. “The EU can show examples that North Macedonia can learn from, such as the issue of the Hungarian minority in Slovakia or German-French relations,” he explained.

Deputy Prime Minister Slavica Grkovska said there are many challenges and issues to resolve, but also there is a strong political will to do that. “It is not easy to deinstall the system of the captured state, but the current government is reform-oriented, and it has done a lot.”

The panelists concluded that EU membership is still a strategic goal of North Macedonia.

Following the panel discussion, at the beginning of the Chatham House debate, the BSCP researchers Luka Šterić and Ivana Ranković presented a report on Hungary’s role in the Western Balkans, followed by a discussion of international and regional experts.

The BSC Leaders Meetings events, with the distinguished panel of international and domestic speakers, are planned to continue in the coming months in other capitals of the Western Balkans.

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The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) is honoured to invite you to the BSC Leaders Meetings discussion under the title “Russian Aggression Against Ukraine: New Momentum for the EU Enlargement?”, which will take place on 17 May 2023 at 14:00 CET, at Marriott Hotel, Skopje.

The BSC Leaders Meetings present a series of half-day events organised throughout the Western Balkans. They are part of the Belgrade Security Conference (BSC) – a high-level international policy event organised by the BCSP each October. The BSC Leaders Meetings aim to gather policy-makers and experts who will discuss significant foreign and security challenges facing the region, geopolitical events and trends affecting it and to assess the future of democratic reforms, regional cooperation and the place of the Western Balkans in global politics.

Each BSC Leaders Meetings event includes a public discussion and a Chatham House debate. The BCSP research on the role and strategies of different geopolitical actors in the Western Balkans will be presented and discussed. On this occasion, the Hungarian influence in the Western Balkans will be discussed under the Chatham House rules. The primary impulse for debate will be provided by the BCSP researchers Luka Šterić and Ivana Ranković, who will be presenting BCSP new research report on the Hungarian role in the Western Balkans.

Agenda:

13:30 – 14:00 Registration and Welcome Coffee

14:00 – 14:05 Opening remarks

Igor Bandović, Director, Belgrade Centre for Security Policy

14:05 – 15:00 Panel discussion

• Stevo Pendarovski, President of the Republic of North Macedonia
• Slavica Grkovska, Deputy Prime Minister in charge of good governance policies in the Government of the Republic of North Macedonia
• Vessela Tcherneva, Deputy Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations
• Goran Buldioski, Director of Programs for Open Society–Europe and Central Asia

Moderator: Srdjan Cvijić, President of the International Advisory Committee of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy

15:00 – 15:30 Q&A

15:30 – 16:00 Coffee break

Please click below to complete the mandatory registration for in-person participation:

Register here 

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