At the Belgrade Security Conference, the panel “Lost in Geopolitics? Post-Yugoslav Views on Security” brought together regional experts who warned that the Western Balkans is facing a convergence of geopolitical uncertainty, democratic erosion, and weakening public trust in institutions

Moderated by Ivan Vujačić, Professor at the University of Belgrade, the discussion emphasised that the region stands at the intersection of major global power shifts and persistent domestic challenges – and that future stability will depend on renewed democratic reforms and more reliable international engagement.

Vuk Vuksanović, Senior Researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, opened the debate with findings from the Security Radar report. He noted that public attitudes across the region toward major powers are increasingly marked by skepticism. Rather than being perceived as stabilizing forces, great powers are more often seen as potential sources of risk. Vuksanović explained that confidence in the EU has declined sharply, partly because citizens feel the Union does not uphold the standards it promotes. Citing North Macedonia, he argued that what was once considered a success story has become an example of the EU’s diminishing credibility.

Despite geopolitical pressures, he added, most people in the region remain focused on domestic problems – economic stagnation, environmental degradation, and weak institutions. Recent protests in Serbia, he suggested, reflect growing civic agency and rising dissatisfaction with the status quo.

From Slovenia, Petra Roter, Professor of International Relations at the University of Ljubljana, outlined a complex relationship between political elites and the public. Slovenia often presents itself as a principled international actor, illustrated by its current role on the UN Security Council. Yet at home, she noted, many citizens remain skeptical about defense spending and are more concerned with corruption, organized crime, and governance challenges than with traditional security threats. Roter also highlighted rising tensions around identity and minority issues, observing that these debates mirror broader European struggles over how values, rights, and security intersect – and at times collide.

Speaking about Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nedžma Džananović Miraščija, Professor at the University of Sarajevo, underscored the enduring influence of external actors on the country’s stability. While the presence of the United States and the EU remains vital for maintaining peace, she argued that inconsistent policies and shifting priorities have generated frustration and uncertainty. She pointed to instances in which EU institutions downplayed security risks shortly before increasing their military presence, noting that such contradictions undermine confidence in international engagement. Džananović Miraščija also warned that certain EU decisions – including controversial appointments within EUFOR – have raised concerns about judgment and sensitivity in a fragile environment.

Representing North Macedonia, Nikola Dimitrov, President and Co-Founder of Solution and former Deputy Prime Minister, reflected on Europe’s broader democratic challenges. He argued that declining respect for democratic norms, coupled with institutional weaknesses and widespread impunity, poses a greater threat to the region than external actors. Public opinion in North Macedonia, he noted, is often contradictory: many citizens perceive neighbouring Bulgaria or Russia as threats, yet express admiration for authoritarian leaders elsewhere. Dimitrov stressed that EU membership remains the region’s key strategic goal but warned that the credibility of the enlargement process is eroding. Without clearer commitments and timelines, he said, there is a risk that future generations will lose faith in the EU altogether.

Moderator Vujačić encouraged speakers to reflect on what meaningful democratic renewal would require. He noted that the war in Ukraine has pushed EU enlargement back onto the agenda but cautioned that superficial or procedural reforms will not suffice. Democracy, he argued, must be rebuilt in substance as well as in form.

In their concluding remarks, panelists highlighted democratic fatigue, institutional instability, and inconsistent international support as core concerns for the region. They called for stronger regional cooperation, firmer rule-of-law commitments, and closer coordination with international partners.

Overall, the panel agreed that the Western Balkans is confronting both global turbulence and unfinished internal transitions. Navigating this period will require resilience, deeper civic engagement, and a renewed capacity to shape the region’s democratic and security future.

The post Lost in Geopolitics? Post-Yugoslav Views on Security, Sovereignty and the Future of Europe appeared first on BELGRADE SECURITY CONFERENCE 2024.