The second day of the Belgrade Security Conference continued with discussions on the stability of U.S. – China relations and their roles across different regions – whether in their own backyards or in areas like the Western Balkans. The discussion was moderated by Scott Bates, Regional Director of Europe and Eurasia at the National Democratic Institute.

All panelists agreed that the relationship is highly volatile, with rare earth minerals and regional investments representing particular points of pressure. Additionally, it was concluded that now is the time to reconsider old strategies and take action – whether through deterrence, sanctions, or cooperation.

Gordon Flake, the founding CEO of the Perth USAsia Centre at the University of Western Australia, emphasized the importance of adopting new strategies to address contemporary China. He noted that the U.S. – China relationship is unstable “in every arena.” Flake expressed greater concern about the volatility of the current Trump administration, which raises questions about the U.S. stance on Ukraine, China, and other issues. He also highlighted concerns about China’s influence across various regions and industries, stressing the importance of “ensuring that we can deny China monopolistic behavior.”

Ken Jimbo, professor of International Relations at Keio University, provided insight into Tokyo’s perspective, noting that East Asia is “closely watching” the war in Ukraine and the peacemaking efforts. He pointed out that China’s defense budget was comparable to Japan’s in 2005 and has since increased five to six times. Jimbo emphasized the importance of “having the resilience to diversify your sources” as a way to manage the “issue of the asymmetrical situation that China presents.” He cited Japan’s ability to diversify sources of rare earth metals as a positive example.

Sanae Takaichi has recently made headlines not for her statements but for China’s reaction to them, according to Valérie Niquet, Senior Research Fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research. Niquet explained that Japan’s new Prime Minister’s support for Taiwan is perceived as a threat by China, prompting Beijing to attempt to delegitimize her leadership. She also discussed the turbulent China – Japan relationship over the past three decades. Furthermore, Niquet highlighted China’s capacity to exert pressure on countries that influence the rare earth metals market – a situation that Europe has “slept on for too long.”

Theresa Fallon, founder and director of the Centre for Russia–Europe–Asia Studies, spoke about the “incredible complexity” involved in supporting either side of the Ukraine conflict, involving countries such as South Korea, New Zealand, Japan, North Korea, and Australia. She also addressed shifts in U.S. foreign policy, stating: “Under the Biden administration, there was a more democracy-over-autocracy approach; under Trump, it is very unclear what will happen.” In an era where “democracy and values seem to have taken a backseat,” Fallon contended that the EU remains the only bastion of democracy left.

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