One of the three parallel panels on the final day of the Belgrade Security Conference 2025, moderated by Majlinda Bregu, Chair of the Strategic Committee at Europe Plus (E+) and former Minister of European Integration of Albania, focused on the future of EU enlargement and the reforms needed to restore credibility to the process.

Despite their differing perspectives, the speakers agreed that enlargement remains both strategically essential and potentially transformative – but only if the EU accelerates its approach and strengthens support for genuine democratic and institutional change in the Western Balkans.

Tanja Miščević, Professor at the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Belgrade and former Minister for European Integration, reflected on whether the traditional enlargement model has become too slow for today’s geopolitical realities and what a renewed approach should entail. She noted that the EU is currently exploring various proposals within the limits of its primary law, prioritising immediate measures that can deliver tangible results rather than reforms requiring treaty change. The introduction of gradual or accelerated integration tools – including the new Growth Plan – reflects this evolving mindset. Miščević argued that enlargement fatigue within the EU has produced reform fatigue in the region, making it essential to speed up the process. At the same time, she criticised the Growth Plan for lacking a clear connection to accession, stressing that economic convergence cannot substitute for political integration. For enlargement to succeed, she concluded, the process must become faster, more responsive, and more visibly tied to the goal of full membership.

Fatmir Besimi, Founder and CEO of Strategers and former Minister of Finance of North Macedonia, addressed concerns about the financial implications of Western Balkan membership by asking whether allocating an additional one percent of current EU GDP to the region – if it were to join today – would truly burden the Union. According to him, major reforms demand significant resources: money, time, institutional capacity, and political vision. Yet countries often undertake substantial reforms without seeing meaningful progress in accession talks. He illustrated the financial gap between candidate countries and member states by noting that IPA funds currently offer roughly €150 per capita, compared with structural and regional funds in new EU members, which reach around €3,000 per capita and increase annually. This, he emphasised, demonstrates the transformative power of full EU membership. Research consistently shows that economic convergence accelerates only after accession. The region, he argued, should not be viewed as a cost: a market of 20 million people is far from a burden, and strategically, the Western Balkans are integral to Europe’s future. The real challenge, he concluded, lies in the pace and consistency of reforms.

Agon Maliqi, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, argued that EU enlargement today functions primarily as a security project. He reminded the audience that the EU was originally created as a peace project that ensured stability across the continent for decades, yet over the last ten years EU policy toward the Western Balkans has resembled containment more than genuine integration. Now, after a decade of scepticism, a new momentum is emerging – a window of opportunity for those prepared to seize it. Maliqi noted that only around 40 percent of Western Balkan citizens are aware of the actual economic benefits of accession, underscoring the absence of strong domestic drivers for change. Reforms, he stressed, remain indispensable, but he identified Serbia as the decisive battleground where the EU risks losing the opportunity to form a new partnership with reform-oriented actors. Brussels, he argued, must engage more actively with those working toward democratic change rather than prioritising “stability” above all else.

Biljana Papović, State Secretary at the Ministry of European Affairs of Montenegro, emphasized that the enlargement process still carries substantial transformative power. She pointed out that Montenegro continues to register some of the highest public support for EU membership in the region, often between 70 and 80 percent, and that citizens expect and demand progress. Starting from a weak baseline in terms of economic indicators, financial stability, and administrative capacity, Montenegro has made notable advances. Still, Papović underlined that reforms cannot succeed without strong support from EU member states and a robust regional dimension. She highlighted initiatives such as SEPA and rule-of-law programmes, which bring direct, visible benefits to citizens. At the same time, she observed that regional initiatives often lack a clear link to the accession process, even though alignment with EU standards is costly and requires expert assistance and substantial financial backing from the Union. On mechanisms to safeguard standards after accession, she clarified that Montenegro does not oppose post-accession monitoring. However, restricting voting rights or offering anything less than full membership would be unjust if a country has fulfilled all required obligations.

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The final panel on the second day of BSC 2025, moderated by Nikola Burazer, Programme Director of the Center for Contemporary Politics, examined the European Union’s revived enlargement narrative and the prospects for genuinely positive developments by the end of the decade.

Participants noted that Brussels has adopted a more proactive stance and appears increasingly open to welcoming additional member states by 2030. Montenegro, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine were identified as the current frontrunners. While institutional adjustments within the Union remain necessary, the panel stressed that these reforms must not become an obstacle to further expansion.

Steven Blockmans, Senior Fellow at CEPS and ICDS and Visiting Professor at the College of Europe, delivered an optimistic assessment of the EU’s current enlargement outlook. He highlighted Moldova’s dramatic progress, Montenegro’s advances in closing negotiation chapters, and the swift pace of reforms in Ukraine and Albania. Nevertheless, he warned that political readiness must be matched by technical progress – both within candidate countries and within the EU itself. Public support for enlargement currently averages around 56 percent across the Union, though attitudes vary significantly among member states, particularly where radical-right parties are gaining influence. Blockmans suggested that Montenegro and Albania could realistically join by 2030, and that other candidates may complete negotiations within this timeframe. Serbia, however, he described as facing stagnation or even regression at a time when geopolitical circumstances demand acceleration.

Thijs Reuten, Member of the European Parliament, expressed cautious optimism that Albania and Montenegro could enter the EU by the end of the decade. Reflecting on his campaign messages, he argued that admitting at least two new members would counter those who deliberately bet on the Union’s failure and would help restore trust in the enlargement process. Commenting on public perceptions in Serbia, he said it is unsurprising that protesters do not wave EU flags when they see European officials appearing too close to the current government, which damages trust in Brussels. Asked whether the EU better understands the situation in Serbia today, Reuten insisted that Brussels must remain impartial and allow Serbian citizens to determine their political future – while stressing that impartiality does not mean neutrality when democratic standards are at stake. Echoing student demands for the rule of law and transparency, he concluded with a message to Serbian citizens: “I’m a friend of the Serbian people. We want Serbia to be part of this Europe we believe in.”

Irena Joveva, Member of the European Parliament, emphasized that Parliament remains firmly committed to enlargement and sees it as the only credible strategic path forward. Responding to moderator Nikola Burazer’s question about whether other EU institutions share this enthusiasm, she noted that the European Commission seems increasingly motivated – less by developments within the Western Balkans and more by broader geopolitical pressures, especially Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Council, traditionally more cautious, is also demonstrating greater willingness to move ahead. This creates a rare momentum, she said, that must not be squandered. Joveva warned, however, that the EU cannot afford to admit “another Orbán.” Asked whether Parliament can continue insisting on adherence to European values throughout the enlargement process, she criticised other institutions for selectively invoking those principles – particularly in their dealings with Serbia. Acknowledging that the EU has lost credibility in the Western Balkans because “we didn’t do our homework,” she said that change is nonetheless under way and that it is no longer possible to ignore developments in Serbia. She stressed that her advocacy reflects fidelity to EU values, which is why she openly supports the demands of Serbian students.

Sofija Mandić, Member of the Center for Judicial Research, observed that many Serbian citizens never hear the message that they are part of the European family, largely due to severe limitations on media freedom. Those closer to the political process, however, are aware of the EU’s shifting approach to enlargement. With public support for EU membership now at approximately 33 percent, she argued that ordinary people are simply not exposed to the positive narrative frequently articulated elsewhere. In 2001, more than 67 percent supported EU accession – making the long-term decline a serious concern. Still, she noted that Montenegro’s or Albania’s entry into the EU would send a powerful signal across the region that accession remains achievable, especially for those who cannot see this reflected in the domestic media. Turning to the rule of law and reforms in Serbia, Mandić criticised the persistent belief that adopting new legislation alone is sufficient. She cited the Law on Public Procurement, whose deliberate circumvention in practice – despite repeated revisions in line with EU recommendations – she believes contributed to the recent tragedy in Novi Sad. Asked what the EU should do in response to Serbia’s rising authoritarian tendencies, she argued that citizens must feel seen and acknowledged through clear, direct communication. To remain impartial yet still defend democratic principles, she said, the EU must place free and fair elections at the top of its priorities. If Brussels fails to insist on this, she warned, the critical question becomes what the EU will do once the results of an unfair contest are announced.

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