The ongoing war in Ukraine was one of the topics of the second day of the Belgrade Security Conference. Panelists engaged in a thought-provoking conversation, offering their views on the possible outcome of the war with new political circumstances in mind. The main conclusion was that exactly 1000 days from the start of the war, help to Ukraine and cessation of hostilities are of the utmost importance.

 

 

Maxim Tucker, a correspondent for Ukraine and Eastern Europe for The Times, argued that achieving lasting peace is difficult but not impossible. It would involve defeating Russia while putting pressure on Ukraine to make accessions. Having experience reporting from the war’s frontlines, he noted that, in trenches, there was a great sense of betrayal of Ukrainians by Western powers, flared up by the victory of Donald Trump. The belief that the West has not provided the promised support is widespread among the people of Ukraine.

 

 

Nathalie Tocci, the Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, argued that the real question was not how the war would end but whether it would (ever) end. She pointed out that a ceasefire would create political division within the EU, while the second scenario in which the war continues would pose a military threat to the whole continent but, at the same time, politically unify Europe. Tocci emphasized the role Europe could play, especially if the USA, under Trump’s administration, started pulling away from the efforts to achieve peace.

 

 

Oleksandr Chalyi, associate fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, focused on the possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Chalyi said that norms of international law should play a key role in addressing this question, namely, respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine in the borders of 1991, punishing Russian war criminals, and future reparations to be paid by Russia. He also stressed the importance of international guarantees in the form of a military package that would deter Russia and an economic package for rebuilding Ukraine.

 

 

Velina Tchakarova, the founder of FACE For a Conscious Experience, argued that a three-dimensional approach, including help to Ukraine, sanctions imposed on Russian commodities, and efforts considering international diplomacy, was an effective strategy. She highlighted the importance of a realist perspective and pointed out that it was crucial to fulfill all the promises instead of just giving them. Tchakarova said that Europe must be ready to answer a handful of questions regarding the new presidency of Donald Trump, China-Russia relations, and the reality that all of these factors combined create.