The opening panel of the Conference was about the topic that is on everyone’s mind: The results of the US and EU elections. The panellists agreed that there is a real danger that the US would adopt a more isolationist foreign policy, and that Trump’s victory will inspire authoritarian and illiberal leaders around the world.
The main direct security threats related to this, were agreed to be the war in Ukraine, the war in the middle East and a possible trade war between the US and China. The panellists agreed that Trump’s victory adds a level of uncertainty to all of these processes, and a possibility of illiberal tendencies emerging around the world.
Thomas Countryman, Board Chairman of Arms Control Association, focused on the fear that president Trump might want to try capture state institutions, based on the example of authoritarian leaders he admiers. He explained that Trump has gained full control of the republican party, but that this doesn’t mean that he will be able to carry out his designs. On foreign policy, he highlighted the problem of the conflict in Ukraine, and the danger that he might compromise Ukraine’s position, stressing that the negotiations will be a lot more complicated than Trump suggested during the election campaign.
Federica Mogherini, Rector of the College of Europe and Director of the European Union Diplomatic Academy, highlighted the danger inherent in Trump’s lack of respect for International law and the rules and norms that the EU follows. She stressed the importance of Human Rights, the Rule of law, Democracy, Diversity and Inclusion, contrasting it with the intentions expressed by Trump. She displayed optimism by saying that the EU acts most decisively when there are major threats and dangers, and that it has displayed unity during crises in the past. She expressed a hope that enlargement will happen in the EU soon, and that the union will invest more in its security.
Wojciech Przybylski, Editor-in-chief of Visegrad Insight and President of the Res Publica Foundation, focused on the situation in and around Poland, explaining that its security depends both on the existence of norms and values, and the ability to back them up by military power. He expressed a fear that there is a divergence of foreign policy paths of different actors in the transatlantic space. Likewise he stressed the danger that the US would become more isolationist, and would compromise the values that connect it to the EU.
Thomas Gomart, Director of Institut français des relations internationales, expressed a fear that the US would become less engaged with the EU, and that he will be more concerned with the US and its problems. The Moderator, Rosa Balfour, Director of Carnegie Europe, referenced the earlier attempts by the EU to Trump-Proof Nato and the trans-Alantic partnership, but that this time Europe is not ready. Mr. Gomart answered that there is a lack of political leadership in EU, with its leading countries being in unstable situations, giving a reminder that most of the countries which are art of the EU’s Neighbourhood policy have entered into conflict.
