The Panel on the Middle East touched on sensitive and difficult topics, but it led to general agreement on many important questions. The panellists agreed that there is no clear plan for what happens in Gaza after the end of the war, but that the long-term peace perspective depends on a two-state solution, as the regional conflict cannot be solved through violence. They also agreed that the war between Israel and the Palestinians is more like a civil war, as there are no clear borders, making the eventual conflict resolution more difficult.

As such their view was that a solution between Israel and Hezbollah will be easier to reach, but that the role of Iran must be taken into account. As for president Trump, the panellists were of the view that what will happen is uncertain because he is unpredictable, but that the processes in the Middle East are long term and include a large number of influential actors.

 

 

Arie Kacowicz, Professor of International Relations and the Chaim Weizmann Chair in International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, opened with an optimistic view that due to the stalemate in the Middle East and the saturation with conflict, there is an opportunity for a stalemate. He explained that young people in Israel are fed up with conflicts, and that the majority of the Israeli population wants to stop the war. He added that he believes in a two state solution, but that this would only be possible as part of an overall peace in the region between Israel and the Arab states, potentially oriented against Iran. He stressed that Israel has no clear plan for what happens after the conflict, but that peace is the only long term solution.

 

 

Yezid Sayigh, Senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, laid the blame for the situation on the government of Israel, stating that Prime Minister Netanyahu is using war as a form of politics, and is continuing the war for political reasons. He also warned that Netanyahu is compromising with the far right and has no strong opposition, but that his policies will reach a dead end. He contextualised the crisis in the wider problem of the rise of the right around the world, expressing a fear that far right forces will continue to gain power, threatening everyone. He shared a pessimistic view that these right-wing shifts will prevent a clear solution in the near future, as the relations in the region are at a very low level.

 

 

Boushra Jaber, Visiting Fellow at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, urged everyone to take a wider geopolitical view and to consider the role of Iran, which has to be a part of an overall and stable peace. She pointed out that what is domestic is regional in the Middle East, and vice versa, and that the question of peace between Israel and Hezbollah is complicated and will require compromise. Likewise she expressed a fear of civil conflict in Lebanon, where Hezbollah has captured the state, and where a completely new system has to be established to allow the country to move forward. Lastly, she warned that Hezbollah could not be removed because it is a part of society and represents the Shia community in Lebanon, making compromise the only option.